Transformation · Banking

Loan camps planned in micro-markets where secured lending demand sits.

A small finance bank assessed secured lending demand by pin code, which is too broad to choose a camp site. Demand was mapped at micro-market level, and camps were planned around the strongest ones.

Small finance bank
Loans against property
Below-the-line marketing
District modelled to micro-market pockets

A single marketing camp produced never seen before results

Now it scales to hundreds of branches and thousands of locations. Measured from the sourcing camps the model recommended.

268
Validated
Inquiries generated by the camps in two days.
101
Validated
Already progressed into the lending pipeline.
47
Scope
PIN codes modelled across the district.
4
Scope
Camp-level dossiers delivered, each with its own strategy.

The case

01 · The PIN code problem

Good businesses in bad postcodes

Assessing viability across a whole PIN code excludes sound borrowers who happen to sit inside a historically weak one.

02 · Uneven risk

Delinquency varies inside a market

Default behaviour differs sharply between neighbouring pockets, and a district-level view averages that away.

03 · Field judgement

No way to test a rejection

When a team declined a recommended market, leadership could not tell a genuine constraint from a convenient one.

The unit of assessment moved from the PIN code to the 400 metre pocket

A score from zero to one hundred is built for each pocket, indexing commercial capacity rather than credit quality. Dense, active neighbourhood economies show up as standalone units even when the postcode around them looks weak.

Physical infrastructure

Satellite-derived concrete building counts and total built-up area.

Commercial activity

Verified points of interest and registry entries, separating genuine commerce from residential frontage.

Economic stability

Quality multipliers covering pharmacies, grocers, schools and institutional presence.

Pockets scored inside a weak postcode

What was scored

Eight composite scores per hexagon, each assembled from its own attribute set, plus a client-provided risk overlay.

Business sectoral shortfall
150 attributes
Construction propensity
50 attributes
Cash intensity
50 attributes
Market penetration
35 attributes
Formalisation
30 attributes
Ease of credit
15 attributes
Serviceability
10 attributes
Credit and delinquency overlay
Client provided

Every score is attributable. A regional head can ask why a hexagon was classified as blue ocean and see the signals behind it.

Five classes, gated on risk before opportunity

A market can be commercially strong and still fail the risk gate. Toxicity vetoes the classification outright.

Dark Green
Primary hub
High opportunity, low competition, delinquency under the agreed threshold.
Action
Build presence first
Light Green
Contested hub
High opportunity with entrenched competition and clean risk.
Action
Compete on balance transfer
Yellow
Secondary, guardrails
Viable but smaller, with moderate default and pipeline risk.
Action
Source under a loan-to-value cap
Grey
Monitor
Fails the minimum physical viability check on buildings and commercial presence.
Action
Do not travel
Red
Toxic, auto-veto
High toxicity on peer default behaviour regardless of commercial strength.
Action
Excluded outright

What each team received

One output per role, ending in a document a branch could run a camp from.

Leadership

An explainable classification map

District-wide classification with the signals behind every hexagon visible, so a challenge can be answered with evidence instead of assertion.

Regional

Ranked markets with risk gates applied

Opportunity ranked after the risk overlay, so a market that looks strong commercially and carries toxic peer behaviour never reaches the field plan.

Branch and field

Camp-level dossiers

Location strategy documents naming the hub, the commercial strip to work, the ticket size the market supports and which branch should lead the camp.

How the workflow changed

Before
Viability assessed across whole PIN codes
Camps placed where the branch already had relationships
Risk applied as a portfolio average
Field rejections could not be tested
Sound borrowers screened out by their postcode
→
After
Viability assessed in 400 metre pockets
Camps placed on modelled opportunity, with a named lead branch
Risk applied as a gate at hexagon level
Every classification carries its underlying signals
Strong pockets inside weak postcodes become reachable

Two camps, two different plays

The classification decided the strategy before the camp was scheduled.

Uncontested hub
22 hexagons, roughly 6,400 buildings, 89 active commercial entities on a highway corridor.
Dark Green
Play
Dedicated sourcing camp led by the nearest branch, building presence before competitors arrive.
Contested transit hub
39 hexagons, over 9,100 structures, 224 commercial points of interest at a railway junction.
Light Green
Play
Balance-transfer camp competing directly for business already held by entrenched lenders.
Sometimes the field team's market perspective is genuine, and sometimes it is a story. We need to have counter-intelligence at headquarters so we can guide the team and control execution.
Bank Leadership
On field responses to recommended markets

This is why every classification carries its inputs. When a team declines a market, the conversation moves to the specific signal they disagree with, which is a question that can be settled by going there.

Start with one district and one camp.

We will model the district, hand you the camp dossier, and you can judge it against the market your team already knows best.

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