Transformation · Housing Finance

Catching a slipping branch with early actionable alerts.

A housing finance company reviewed branch performance quarterly, by which point a weak quarter was already spent. Each catchment now carries weekly signals on utilisation, competitor movement and officer coverage, with alerts that fire early.

Housing finance company
Branch profitability
Secured lending
Branch catchment with classified hexagons

The thresholds the system runs on

Agreed with the client before deployment. Each one fires an alert to a named owner.

15%
Threshold
Book share in a single hexagon that triggers a concentration alert when arrears are rising.
60%
Missed markets
Zero officer visits to a top-quintile hexagon before neglect is flagged.
15%
Threshold
Coverage drift from the original territory design that triggers a rebalance.
500m
Scope
Resolution at which every output is aggregated. No individual records.

The case

01 · Thin contribution

Basis points decide the branch

After funding cost, credit cost and operating expense, net contribution at a typical branch is slim enough that small movements matter.

02 · Quarterly sight

Problems surfaced too late

Concentration, neglect and funnel leakage all appeared in reporting only after a quarter had already been lost.

03 · Territory drift

Coverage wandered from the design

Officer territories were set once and then drifted, with nobody measuring how far actual coverage had moved.

The catchment became something that raises its hand

Weekly hexagon-level counts from the client join to EPIC market signals. Classifications update, and three conditions fire automatically to a named owner rather than waiting for a review.

Portfolio concentration

Too much book in one pocket

A single hexagon passes the share threshold while arrears rise. New sourcing from that hexagon halts and collections are alerted.

Blue ocean neglect

Opportunity going unworked

A top-quintile hexagon records no officer visits inside the window. The branch manager assigns it in the next weekly plan.

Funnel leak

Conversion falling in one place

Lead to login conversion drops inside a hexagon that was performing. The branch investigates a local cause rather than a general one.

The weekly loop

What was scored, and what was exchanged

Market signals from EPIC, operational counts from the client, combined at hexagon level.

Construction and collateral base

Built-up area, building counts and construction propensity.

Sets the physical ceiling on secured lending volume a market can support.

Commercial and formalisation

Business density, registry presence and sector mix.

Identifies the self-employed borrower base this product is written for.

Client operational counts

Weekly aggregated leads, logins, disbursals and visits per hexagon.

Turns a static market map into a live comparison of effort against opportunity.

Portfolio behaviour, aggregated

Arrears and concentration summarised to hexagon, never to a customer.

Lets a market be de-risked without any individual record leaving the client.

The exchange is a weekly file of counts per hexagon. No customer names, no addresses, no individual loan amounts, no identifiers of any kind. Every output is aggregated at 0.7 km² and the arrangement is compliant with the Digital Personal Data Protection Act 2023.

Classifications move as evidence accumulates

A market that recovers has to be able to earn its way back, otherwise the model quietly blacklists places forever.

State
What it means
Action
Green
Opportunity present, portfolio behaviour clean.
Source actively
Yellow
Viable with elevated risk indicators.
Source under tightened terms
Pink
Flagged on portfolio behaviour, sourcing restricted.
Hold, and keep watching
Pink to Yellow or Green
A restricted hexagon whose portfolio behaviour has improved.
Reclassify and reopen

What each team received

Weekly for the field, monthly for the network.

Cluster and zonal heads

An aggregated dossier

Branches ranked by the gap between sourcing and opportunity, with concentration alerts where an officer has over-indexed on one zone and operating cost flags where travel has spiked.

Branch managers

A weekly coverage view

Officer coverage against the priority map, naming the specific hexagons that carry opportunity and have gone unvisited.

Network and strategy

A monthly dossier refresh

Full re-run against the last month of operational data, with hexagons moving between classifications and territory rebalances recommended where coverage has drifted.

How the workflow changed

Before
Catchment quality assessed once, at branch opening
Concentration risk visible only in quarterly reporting
Neglected opportunity never surfaced at all
Territories set once and left to drift
A restricted market stayed restricted indefinitely
→
After
Catchment reclassified weekly against fresh operational data
Concentration alerts fire to a named owner as they build
Unvisited high-opportunity hexagons flagged inside the window
Coverage drift measured, with rebalance triggered at threshold
Recovered markets reclassified and reopened on evidence

Where the return comes from

Three levers against branch profit and loss, modelled on the client's own branch economics and stated conservatively. These are projections.

Revenue lever
Sourcing concentrated in familiar pockets while blue ocean hexagons in the same catchment go unworked.
Margin
With EPIC
Incremental book growth from activating the unworked pockets, which lands on net interest margin.
Risk lever
Concentration builds unnoticed until arrears surface in reporting.
Credit cost
With EPIC
Sourcing halted in a hexagon while the problem is still small, which lands on credit cost.
Cost lever
Officer travel and effort spread across a catchment without prioritisation.
Operating cost
With EPIC
Coverage rebalanced against opportunity, which lands on operating expense per branch.

Net contribution at a branch of this size is thin, so each lever is material rather than marginal. The improvement opportunity here is structural.

Reviews take a lot of time in any org. The ability to go deep into micro-markets at this resolution at HQ levels make our reviews sharper and help us focus on the right outcomes.
Client Leadership
During scoping

Opportunity is defined against the branch itself. A hexagon in the top quintile of its own catchment on construction and commercial signals, carrying clean portfolio behaviour, and receiving no officer visits. That combination is specific enough to assign to somebody on a Monday.

Start with one branch catchment.

Send a week of aggregated hexagon counts. We will classify the catchment and show you which high-opportunity pockets your team has not visited.

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